Definition: Advance estimate

Category: Statistical methodologies

For an institution in charge of the regular estimate (Axis1), an advance estimate for the most recent reference period T is an estimate of generally a hard economic indicator (Axis 2) computed during the reference period T (Axis 7). Although it is calculated on the basis of an incomplete information set it is produced using the same methodology adopted for the production of regular estimates (Axis 4). Statistical and econometric techniques (Axis 6) are used to fill in the temporary (Axis 5 and 8) incomplete observations. Hard, soft, unconventional and financial data are used if they are observed during the reference period T.

In some cases, a producer could be able to partially evaluate the current state of a series for the reference period T using some partial information available in T and considering the adherence principle to the regular estimate, but with the support of modeling techniques to fill remaining gaps. In this case, such estimates would be considered as an advance estimate. This is different from the nowcasting issue.

Explanation of axes:

Axis 1: The uniqueness of an official release versus the potential multiplicity of producers
Axis 2: The target variable
Axis 3: Revisions in the estimate
Axis 4: The adherence to the regular production process
Axis 5: The information set
Axis 6: Model versus parameter uncertainty
Axis 7: An appropriate release time
Axis 8: Reporting and reference period http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/product?code=KS-GQ-17-008&mode=view