Definition: Counter-seasonal estimation

Category: Harmonised indices of consumer prices

Procedure to obtain an estimated price for a seasonal product so that: 

(a) in the first out-of-season month, a typical price from the previous in-season period is used;
(b) in the following out-of-season months, the estimated price is equal to the previous month's price adjusted by the average change in observed prices over all in-season seasonal products in the same ECOICOP group, class, subclass or the same aggregate at any level below the subclass (Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2020/1148).

Estimation of a price for a product-offer of a product that is out-of-season so that: 

- in the first month of the out-of-season period, the estimated price is equal to a typical price observed in the previous in-season period, and, 
- from the second month, the estimated price is equal to the estimated price for the preceding month, adjusted by the change in observed prices on average over all seasonal products that are in-season in the same subdivision of COICOP/HICP (Commission Regulation (EC) No 330/2009). https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=uriserv:OJ.L_.2020.252.01.0012.01.ENG European Union, Commission Regulation (EC) No 330/2009 of 22 April 2009 laying down detailed rules for the implementation of Council Regulation (EC) No 2494/95 as regards minimum standards for the treatment of seasonal products in the Harmonised Indices of Consumer Prices (HICP)